We lived through the siege in Mumbai; luckily Wednesday was one of the few nights of the week we did not drop in to either the Taj or the Oberoi. Instead we were at Indigo where the staff cannuly switched off the lights though, given how much the swines knew, that would not have helped had Indigo been on the list. Many of our friends were not as lucky.
Fulminating about the Paki Bastards is of no use, given that their army appears to be ignoring their supposed government. The Paki army would like nothing better than a mobilization of the Indian army which would give them an excuse to cut back on the hammering they are finally giving the Taliban. Better to let the mullahs in uniform take a beating from an even more kattar set of mullahs.
That leaves us with having to devise something that looks like we are punishing the Paki's so that our bloodthirsty politicians can claim victory.
I suggest that our warships which are hanging around Somalia loiter a little bit north and start shadowing merchant vessels going to Pakistan while staying nicely out of the 200 mile limit. It will not be long before jittery shipowners cancel Karachi as a port of call, heaping just a bit more misery on the already miserable country.
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Not Contained
China continues to show large rises in exports - up 19% in October. India showed a 15% drop.
Container rates from China, which used to be USD 2,000 have fallen to between 200 and 400. Rates from India, also 2,000 some months ago, have fallen to 1,000. Container repositioning driven or not the lower rate from China suggests a severe fall in exports is on its way.
My own company's anecdotal evidence is: more Europeans who used to buy in China are looking at India for supply. Why? No one will say.
Container rates from China, which used to be USD 2,000 have fallen to between 200 and 400. Rates from India, also 2,000 some months ago, have fallen to 1,000. Container repositioning driven or not the lower rate from China suggests a severe fall in exports is on its way.
My own company's anecdotal evidence is: more Europeans who used to buy in China are looking at India for supply. Why? No one will say.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
They really are different - 2
From the WSJ of this weekend (emphasis mine):
In a speech Saturday to the first-ever summit of the Group of 20 industrial and emerging nations, the commander-in-chief of the world's fourth-largest economy said efforts should be made to promote the Doha Round of trade talks and achieve positive developments soon.
For some reason the US financial jocks seems fixated on military analogies and terminology.
Given the gift of turmoil they have recently bequeathed us perhaps we should pack them all off to Iraq and Afghanistan with WSJ staffers embedded within.
In a speech Saturday to the first-ever summit of the Group of 20 industrial and emerging nations, the commander-in-chief of the world's fourth-largest economy said efforts should be made to promote the Doha Round of trade talks and achieve positive developments soon.
For some reason the US financial jocks seems fixated on military analogies and terminology.
Given the gift of turmoil they have recently bequeathed us perhaps we should pack them all off to Iraq and Afghanistan with WSJ staffers embedded within.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Wen Smoot-Hawley
The first shot in the coming trade wars has been fired by the Chinese by the raising of export incentives.
I admire the calm of commentators who are now talking about what carrots they will have to offer China to get them to cut the surplus, now that the other evil twin, the US deficit, looks like it is being involuntarily tackled.
Nothing much will work and I fear we are heading into a showdown with les Chinois who, to go by the noises they are making on the India border, are feeling their oats.
The reasons are simple:
1) Dictatorships, whether of plutocrats (the Great Depression) or the proletariat, feel no need to help the common man get a bit more of the pie. They have tin ears.
2) The Chinese ought to consume more the pundits say. But consume what?
a) Not housing because the buggers need an immigration visa to move anywhere nice in their own country. Which means no furniture, bathrooms with tin plated taps etc. Investor visas for Beijing, anyone?
b) Not the stuff the country makes - how many toys or DVD's can a Chinese person buy?
The US will adjust - a few carmakers will go bust, but the country has the dough and the flexibility to get its ass out of a sling. Manufacturing will once again be fashionable (and cheap compared to Europe). Good people become available again proving that sometimes what is bad for Wall Street can sometimes be good for Main Street. The one will indeed kick start green energy, which is no bad thing and that should help.
China has no such options. It is locked into other people's consumption economies and supply chains.
Prepare for the fall of the bamboo curtain. Just remember these are usually brought about by mad elephants rampaging around in the enclosure just beyond.
I admire the calm of commentators who are now talking about what carrots they will have to offer China to get them to cut the surplus, now that the other evil twin, the US deficit, looks like it is being involuntarily tackled.
Nothing much will work and I fear we are heading into a showdown with les Chinois who, to go by the noises they are making on the India border, are feeling their oats.
The reasons are simple:
1) Dictatorships, whether of plutocrats (the Great Depression) or the proletariat, feel no need to help the common man get a bit more of the pie. They have tin ears.
2) The Chinese ought to consume more the pundits say. But consume what?
a) Not housing because the buggers need an immigration visa to move anywhere nice in their own country. Which means no furniture, bathrooms with tin plated taps etc. Investor visas for Beijing, anyone?
b) Not the stuff the country makes - how many toys or DVD's can a Chinese person buy?
The US will adjust - a few carmakers will go bust, but the country has the dough and the flexibility to get its ass out of a sling. Manufacturing will once again be fashionable (and cheap compared to Europe). Good people become available again proving that sometimes what is bad for Wall Street can sometimes be good for Main Street. The one will indeed kick start green energy, which is no bad thing and that should help.
China has no such options. It is locked into other people's consumption economies and supply chains.
Prepare for the fall of the bamboo curtain. Just remember these are usually brought about by mad elephants rampaging around in the enclosure just beyond.
They really are different
This is from today's NYT:
When prices topped $4 a gallon over the summer, Jim Booth of Cleveland could not afford gas for his 1992 Dodge Caravan to visit his 2-year-old son, who lived just eight miles away.
The idea of a bike ride never occurred to this man? When my little beast was 2 (or even now) I would quite happily have trotted the 8 miles there and back. And, in the future it would have made a nice story - quite as nice as I walked 8 miles to school and back and may even have allowed papa to put a little guilt trip on the grown kid.
So, I apologise in advance in the event the man turns out to be handicapped but, the statement above shows why the US will be so hard to bring into the comity of energy poor nations.
When prices topped $4 a gallon over the summer, Jim Booth of Cleveland could not afford gas for his 1992 Dodge Caravan to visit his 2-year-old son, who lived just eight miles away.
The idea of a bike ride never occurred to this man? When my little beast was 2 (or even now) I would quite happily have trotted the 8 miles there and back. And, in the future it would have made a nice story - quite as nice as I walked 8 miles to school and back and may even have allowed papa to put a little guilt trip on the grown kid.
So, I apologise in advance in the event the man turns out to be handicapped but, the statement above shows why the US will be so hard to bring into the comity of energy poor nations.
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