For years have I said that anyone can paint like Husain - I saw him cobble together a canvas in about 10 minutes at some social do years ago.
Today I saw a socialite's paintings in the style of Husain.
I have been wrong for all these years.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Monday, November 23, 2009
Sailing and Management Metaphors
Bombay harbour generally has fantastic sailing conditions; force 3 to 5 winds; 25 degree ambient temperature with points of interest generally conspiring to have punters sail on a beam reach.
After a few lessons anyone can be star helmsman, and we have many such that we have trained over the years.
Its a bit like being a manager in the Indian economy. Any old duffer can be a hero passagemaker so long as he can press on all available canvas.
The other day we were sailing in the harbour but in very light airs, against the tide and on a run.
Less experienced helmsmen were floundering, unable to stick to the mantra of keeping the boat moving at all costs because loss of momentum can stop you dead in the water.
They did not have the experience of these conditions for sure, but what they lacked more was the training to process a dozen points of information. They grew up looking at the jib telltales, more than enough to keep you cracking in our normal winds. They have not yet learned to read the sail shape, the wind on the water, the shroud telltales, the feel of a dead tiller.
I think that is why so many overseas purchases by Indian companies fail. The new masters know how to drive a boat in fair weather, and can manage a storm quite well, because we have those in our economy. How to drive a boat to a goal when you have little wind is a different art and one that relies on huge knowledge systems and not gut instinct.
That is a transition we will all make as our economy slows, but those who perfect the art now will be in a position to grab leadership in emerging areas of our economy, because, at the start, these can seem pretty anaemic.
After a few lessons anyone can be star helmsman, and we have many such that we have trained over the years.
Its a bit like being a manager in the Indian economy. Any old duffer can be a hero passagemaker so long as he can press on all available canvas.
The other day we were sailing in the harbour but in very light airs, against the tide and on a run.
Less experienced helmsmen were floundering, unable to stick to the mantra of keeping the boat moving at all costs because loss of momentum can stop you dead in the water.
They did not have the experience of these conditions for sure, but what they lacked more was the training to process a dozen points of information. They grew up looking at the jib telltales, more than enough to keep you cracking in our normal winds. They have not yet learned to read the sail shape, the wind on the water, the shroud telltales, the feel of a dead tiller.
I think that is why so many overseas purchases by Indian companies fail. The new masters know how to drive a boat in fair weather, and can manage a storm quite well, because we have those in our economy. How to drive a boat to a goal when you have little wind is a different art and one that relies on huge knowledge systems and not gut instinct.
That is a transition we will all make as our economy slows, but those who perfect the art now will be in a position to grab leadership in emerging areas of our economy, because, at the start, these can seem pretty anaemic.
You gonna believe Moody's? or Kroll?
Moody's have been whining about India's potential banking problems and how the possibility of higher losses may impede the growth of public sector banks which may need many billions of dollars to grow.
While I agree with the sentiment, the way the press release is drafted suggests that the recommended strategy is to allow more foreign banking. The strategy of the RBI has been to allow private Indian banks to grow into the space by raising foreign money.
That strategy was derailed by ICICI bank's dumb assed forays into - you guessed it - Moodyland. Otherwise we would have seen a continued growth in Indian private sector banking.
While I would like to see a more competitive banking scenario I do not think that competitiveness will be fostered by more foreign banking - please cast an eye on East Europe and Latvia. Better to allow all the public banks to raise lots more money and essentially convert them to private banks as was done with ICICI, IDBI and Axis rather than to try and consolidate them into bigger public banks.
Whatever the solution (and the one that will come about will be uniquely Indian) I would never have thought of Moody's being a shill for, as we say in India, vested interests, before they were shown to by lying liars by the sub prime debacle.
Time for them to shuffle off the stage and make way for a new model.
I hope Kroll succeeds in his new venture.
While I agree with the sentiment, the way the press release is drafted suggests that the recommended strategy is to allow more foreign banking. The strategy of the RBI has been to allow private Indian banks to grow into the space by raising foreign money.
That strategy was derailed by ICICI bank's dumb assed forays into - you guessed it - Moodyland. Otherwise we would have seen a continued growth in Indian private sector banking.
While I would like to see a more competitive banking scenario I do not think that competitiveness will be fostered by more foreign banking - please cast an eye on East Europe and Latvia. Better to allow all the public banks to raise lots more money and essentially convert them to private banks as was done with ICICI, IDBI and Axis rather than to try and consolidate them into bigger public banks.
Whatever the solution (and the one that will come about will be uniquely Indian) I would never have thought of Moody's being a shill for, as we say in India, vested interests, before they were shown to by lying liars by the sub prime debacle.
Time for them to shuffle off the stage and make way for a new model.
I hope Kroll succeeds in his new venture.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Killer Control
A method to provide unique codes for products so that authenticity can be easily checked by purchasers, so that the locations of stores selling counterfeit products can be recorded, the control of these unique codes is resistant to fraudulent use and can be traced to a batch number, line number and manufacturing location, and so that consumer usage patterns can be discerned by manufacturers of products.
The system consists of the following:
1) Variable data printers with unique id’s attached to packaging lines which print on the package or directly on high value items
2) Design of packaging so that opening the package destroys the data where needed (eg industrial products such as low cost ball bearings)
3) Special purpose machines to print data directly on high value items (high cost ball bearings, watches)
4) Computers to control the output of variable data printers which will erase the unique codes from memory when they have been printed
5) Access protocols for these computers so that only authorised persons can download codes and only for the products to be packed or filled on those lines
6) Nested access protocols for assigning product codes and assigning the manufacture of those to named lines
7) A server and software to assign the unique codes to products and download them to the designated printers
8) A database to store the unique codes so assigned
9) A server to access the data so stored
10) Access points such as the internet and mobile phones
11) Customers can sms the unique code to the designated access point which can be a general one for some customers and a specific one for those who so choose
12) The sms can be called party pays if they choose; can be add driven or can be consumer paid
13) Internet checks are generally expected to be free
14) Failed products will be messaged to the customer by sms and the location of the failure cell site will be stored indefinitely
15) Failed messages can also give the sender the option to choose from a list of known store locations to give the location or allow the sender to fill in the data, perhaps for a token payment
16) Successful products will be messaged to the customer along with a message chosen by the brand owner
a. Successful checks can then have the code cancelled so that any subsequent check of the product results in a failure
i. Useful only for high value products and drugs and certain brands where customer access to the brands is controlled
1. Under this system mistaken cancellation can happen in two ways
a. The item is checked and not bought for the reasons
i. Malice
ii. Stupidity
b. The confirmation sms does not reach the buyer who then takes a different piece
2. Authorized dealers of high value items can be given a method to restore the number within a customer defined period from a designated cell phone
a. These restoration requests will be tracked
b. Successful checks can be stored in a database which will be queried on subsequent checks and a double check will have the location stored and
i. The sender can get a message that the product has been checked before or get a message listing the sellers within the range of the cell tower etc
ii. Or double checks can ignored but location data stored for later investigation
iii. Or the customer can be asked to pick a seller from a list so that the location can be fraud checked
Why this will work
1) It gives virtually every citizen a low cost tool to check what he buys instead of relying on the police and the bureaucracy
a. It will make little difference to products where people want to buy a pirated product such as cd’s, dvd’s and watches and bags known to be fakes
i. Although one could have clever marketing of unique tags by people like LV that say – mine is not a fake – check it out
1. Could become the Kelly Tag
b. It will kill dead fakes of those things where the buyer wants the genuine article (medicine, cosmetics) where he is risking his well being or he is being charged full price and the value created in fraud is accruing to the seller and not to the buyer
This will work because minimal investment is needed in the lines and per unit costs are negligible. It will have a disproportionate impact on fraud because bad sellers will be virally blacklisted and because sellers will work to reduce the chance of being caught.
Once the system is ready it should be pushed onto pharma by the government who can add the cost to the DPC regime – it will cut spurious medicine use to 0 in a few months of implementation. Costs of sms can be allocated based on type of medicine, selling price etc.
Almost every strip of medicine will be checked if the sms can be held to 25p because that is zilch even when compared to a strip of Crocin and nothing when compared to the risk of death.
Revenue model
1) Patent the protocol
2) License the protocol to third party manufacturers of variable printing devices
a. Sales of printing devices to pay selling and admin costs
3) Annual per printer fee
4) Minimal per code fee (5 paisa in India)
5) Fees for nice sellercodes – Sun for sunsilk as opposed to xmsidh
6) Share of the sms revenue/bulk buy and resell
7) Sale of aggregate data
a. Because the purchase of medicine will drive a lot of the use we can identify a large set of phone numbers that we will know a lot about, including how rich they are etc
b. Can use for locational promos, including by mom and pop shops
The system consists of the following:
1) Variable data printers with unique id’s attached to packaging lines which print on the package or directly on high value items
2) Design of packaging so that opening the package destroys the data where needed (eg industrial products such as low cost ball bearings)
3) Special purpose machines to print data directly on high value items (high cost ball bearings, watches)
4) Computers to control the output of variable data printers which will erase the unique codes from memory when they have been printed
5) Access protocols for these computers so that only authorised persons can download codes and only for the products to be packed or filled on those lines
6) Nested access protocols for assigning product codes and assigning the manufacture of those to named lines
7) A server and software to assign the unique codes to products and download them to the designated printers
8) A database to store the unique codes so assigned
9) A server to access the data so stored
10) Access points such as the internet and mobile phones
11) Customers can sms the unique code to the designated access point which can be a general one for some customers and a specific one for those who so choose
12) The sms can be called party pays if they choose; can be add driven or can be consumer paid
13) Internet checks are generally expected to be free
14) Failed products will be messaged to the customer by sms and the location of the failure cell site will be stored indefinitely
15) Failed messages can also give the sender the option to choose from a list of known store locations to give the location or allow the sender to fill in the data, perhaps for a token payment
16) Successful products will be messaged to the customer along with a message chosen by the brand owner
a. Successful checks can then have the code cancelled so that any subsequent check of the product results in a failure
i. Useful only for high value products and drugs and certain brands where customer access to the brands is controlled
1. Under this system mistaken cancellation can happen in two ways
a. The item is checked and not bought for the reasons
i. Malice
ii. Stupidity
b. The confirmation sms does not reach the buyer who then takes a different piece
2. Authorized dealers of high value items can be given a method to restore the number within a customer defined period from a designated cell phone
a. These restoration requests will be tracked
b. Successful checks can be stored in a database which will be queried on subsequent checks and a double check will have the location stored and
i. The sender can get a message that the product has been checked before or get a message listing the sellers within the range of the cell tower etc
ii. Or double checks can ignored but location data stored for later investigation
iii. Or the customer can be asked to pick a seller from a list so that the location can be fraud checked
Why this will work
1) It gives virtually every citizen a low cost tool to check what he buys instead of relying on the police and the bureaucracy
a. It will make little difference to products where people want to buy a pirated product such as cd’s, dvd’s and watches and bags known to be fakes
i. Although one could have clever marketing of unique tags by people like LV that say – mine is not a fake – check it out
1. Could become the Kelly Tag
b. It will kill dead fakes of those things where the buyer wants the genuine article (medicine, cosmetics) where he is risking his well being or he is being charged full price and the value created in fraud is accruing to the seller and not to the buyer
This will work because minimal investment is needed in the lines and per unit costs are negligible. It will have a disproportionate impact on fraud because bad sellers will be virally blacklisted and because sellers will work to reduce the chance of being caught.
Once the system is ready it should be pushed onto pharma by the government who can add the cost to the DPC regime – it will cut spurious medicine use to 0 in a few months of implementation. Costs of sms can be allocated based on type of medicine, selling price etc.
Almost every strip of medicine will be checked if the sms can be held to 25p because that is zilch even when compared to a strip of Crocin and nothing when compared to the risk of death.
Revenue model
1) Patent the protocol
2) License the protocol to third party manufacturers of variable printing devices
a. Sales of printing devices to pay selling and admin costs
3) Annual per printer fee
4) Minimal per code fee (5 paisa in India)
5) Fees for nice sellercodes – Sun for sunsilk as opposed to xmsidh
6) Share of the sms revenue/bulk buy and resell
7) Sale of aggregate data
a. Because the purchase of medicine will drive a lot of the use we can identify a large set of phone numbers that we will know a lot about, including how rich they are etc
b. Can use for locational promos, including by mom and pop shops
Stopping Counterfeiting
I have always been unhappy with counterfeiting and piracy for several reasons:
1) Much of my success has been due to the exploitation of intellectual property and therefore anything that illegally cuts into that revenue stream in wrong in my view
2) Counterfeiting of drugs can kill; even counterfeit cosmetics can harm.
Many people think that the two are different crimes; copying a dvd is not as harmful as counterfeiting drugs. That is so, but only to a point, because the general disdain for the real thing allows many people who might not otherwise be crooks to become crooks.
People of our social standing often think that we are protected from the depredations of false drugs because we have shopped in the same places for 26 years and that those shopkeepers will not deal in counterfeits.
So I thought, till a friend of mine discovered his heart medicine, bought at the 'family' chemist in Friend's Colony was doctored.
Go to Crawford market and you will find a ton of shops selling what appear to be very fake cosmetics. The people buying there are not you and me; they are shopkeepers who will then onsell to you and me.
Our legal system, police system and, frankly, even our manufacturers who are being ripped off appear not to care too much.
I did, however, conduct one experiment at a shop in Mumbai. I asked the owner why he was selling fake products; all the clients in his shop jumped him. If he was certain of being jumped 5 times a day (changing the behaviour of Indians takes that many boots per day, at least at the start) he would probably stop stocking fakes. And any shop verified to be selling only legal things would find its business booming. At least for those things that we as a society want to be original; dvd's will have to wait a long time for this protection.
What if there was a way to name and shame crooked shopkeepers and wholesalers?
There is, and it is outlined in the next blog.
I thought about trying to patent this idea, and start a company to exploit it. It is a very simple idea, but because of modern technology it will work. Instead, because it cost me only a few hours of jet lagged time to think it up it makes more sense to dump it on the next and essentially 'open source' it so lots of people can set services with different features.
And it will make every one of us a policeman with the power to change behaviour.
1) Much of my success has been due to the exploitation of intellectual property and therefore anything that illegally cuts into that revenue stream in wrong in my view
2) Counterfeiting of drugs can kill; even counterfeit cosmetics can harm.
Many people think that the two are different crimes; copying a dvd is not as harmful as counterfeiting drugs. That is so, but only to a point, because the general disdain for the real thing allows many people who might not otherwise be crooks to become crooks.
People of our social standing often think that we are protected from the depredations of false drugs because we have shopped in the same places for 26 years and that those shopkeepers will not deal in counterfeits.
So I thought, till a friend of mine discovered his heart medicine, bought at the 'family' chemist in Friend's Colony was doctored.
Go to Crawford market and you will find a ton of shops selling what appear to be very fake cosmetics. The people buying there are not you and me; they are shopkeepers who will then onsell to you and me.
Our legal system, police system and, frankly, even our manufacturers who are being ripped off appear not to care too much.
I did, however, conduct one experiment at a shop in Mumbai. I asked the owner why he was selling fake products; all the clients in his shop jumped him. If he was certain of being jumped 5 times a day (changing the behaviour of Indians takes that many boots per day, at least at the start) he would probably stop stocking fakes. And any shop verified to be selling only legal things would find its business booming. At least for those things that we as a society want to be original; dvd's will have to wait a long time for this protection.
What if there was a way to name and shame crooked shopkeepers and wholesalers?
There is, and it is outlined in the next blog.
I thought about trying to patent this idea, and start a company to exploit it. It is a very simple idea, but because of modern technology it will work. Instead, because it cost me only a few hours of jet lagged time to think it up it makes more sense to dump it on the next and essentially 'open source' it so lots of people can set services with different features.
And it will make every one of us a policeman with the power to change behaviour.
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