Umm, we can't say that anymore in Oz, can we? Not when 95K darkies pay around US 2.85Bn (my estimate) to the economy every year. How much change the pocket book will ring in is still to be seen, but change will come.
I forecast that India and Indians will have more of an impact than many another large developing country on the rest of the world as our economy matures, because our money is spent as we will it, and not as our government may.
So, Indian managers (Bharti excepted) will buy companies is the smaller developed countries of Europe where they are in a close time zone and where they are culturally comfortable, unlike the Chinese who will buy into far flung dictatorships. And, as savers of jobs, will gain disproportionately in political clout at the local level, which in a democracy is the right level.
Except for England. The Brits, where the government believes that politicians are paid to cozy up to the square mile, and to pay no heed to blue collar workers, are playing hardball at Jaguar.
The correct thing for the Tata's to do would be take out all the designers and engineers (the value of the company) and employ them at Tata Motors and sink the blue collar assemblers. Sometimes, the colonial master must be kicked in the balls; that is best done by the electorate. Nothing says that the Tata's cannot help the electorate to make a fine choice.
Where cricket led the way, so shall other fields follow.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Abandon all hope for sustainable agriculture - Jeffrey Sachs has arrived
The master of shock therapy who handed Russia to the oligarchs is at it again. He has (correctly) identified agricultural productivity and water supply as two areas that need to be fixed to give poor people a chance to succeed in life.
True to his fixation with dough, though, he advocates:
1) Better seeds and fertilizer, both of which play into the hands of MNC's and Big Oil and
2) Piping water from river, across national boundaries etc (citing the wonderful help of a US pipemaker Eagle something or the other for one of his pet projects)
The great man makes no mention of a) organic farming and b) water management and storage on site, probably because those are low cost and their ain't no money to me made by no MNC's.
The many studies and pilot projects (a love of the man) done in India show that organic farming is feasible, is cheaper, and helps with water - remember in this country we get 1 cubic meter per square meter of rain - that is a lot - about 2.5x what it takes to grow wheat.
More on all this in a later, comprehensive, post that is being worked on.
True to his fixation with dough, though, he advocates:
1) Better seeds and fertilizer, both of which play into the hands of MNC's and Big Oil and
2) Piping water from river, across national boundaries etc (citing the wonderful help of a US pipemaker Eagle something or the other for one of his pet projects)
The great man makes no mention of a) organic farming and b) water management and storage on site, probably because those are low cost and their ain't no money to me made by no MNC's.
The many studies and pilot projects (a love of the man) done in India show that organic farming is feasible, is cheaper, and helps with water - remember in this country we get 1 cubic meter per square meter of rain - that is a lot - about 2.5x what it takes to grow wheat.
More on all this in a later, comprehensive, post that is being worked on.
Feedback loops don't always do what you expect
I am chuffed. I have checked the carbon footprint of my house and it is very very low for the square feet - about equal to a highly efficient UK house that is half the size. All those CFL's and LED's have lowered the electricity bill over the last decade, and that in Mumbai is a feat.
We will not talk about the travel footprint, though cutting up the frequent flyer cards and moving to coolie class is on the cards.
Trying to keep going on the energy reduction front we replaced our old and worn a/c's with new direct drive jobs, and insulated the roof and double glazed the windows, all of which are supposed to increase efficiency - sure enough the bill dropped further but there was a horrific consequence. The temperature in the room was becoming unbearably hot though the new a/c was the same power as the old, which had worked fine in uninsulated conditions (no waste except capital because direct drive a/c's adjust to the workload within a very high band, and one wanted to keep the domestic peace - the wife believes in polar bear conditions in the bedroom).
The hotter it got the more we jacked up the fan settings and the dropped the set temperature. And it got even hotter. I borrowed a laser temperature meter from the a/c wallah and spent a night poking about to check temperature differentials. At the start all was well; at 6 a.m. the foot of the bed was at the set 19 degrees and the head was at 24. How could this be? Efficiency - the low set temperature and the huge blast of the air from the machine allowed the direct drive to hold the temperature at the measure point at 19 while allowing it to rise everywhere else. Spot cooling.
A change to the a/c fan and circulation settings has allowed us to drop the set temperature and maintain it in the necessary zone.
This is a small and foolish example of what we do not know. So, climate change will have feedback effects but we do not know which way they will go - the weather is a bit more complex than a single room a/c.
We will not talk about the travel footprint, though cutting up the frequent flyer cards and moving to coolie class is on the cards.
Trying to keep going on the energy reduction front we replaced our old and worn a/c's with new direct drive jobs, and insulated the roof and double glazed the windows, all of which are supposed to increase efficiency - sure enough the bill dropped further but there was a horrific consequence. The temperature in the room was becoming unbearably hot though the new a/c was the same power as the old, which had worked fine in uninsulated conditions (no waste except capital because direct drive a/c's adjust to the workload within a very high band, and one wanted to keep the domestic peace - the wife believes in polar bear conditions in the bedroom).
The hotter it got the more we jacked up the fan settings and the dropped the set temperature. And it got even hotter. I borrowed a laser temperature meter from the a/c wallah and spent a night poking about to check temperature differentials. At the start all was well; at 6 a.m. the foot of the bed was at the set 19 degrees and the head was at 24. How could this be? Efficiency - the low set temperature and the huge blast of the air from the machine allowed the direct drive to hold the temperature at the measure point at 19 while allowing it to rise everywhere else. Spot cooling.
A change to the a/c fan and circulation settings has allowed us to drop the set temperature and maintain it in the necessary zone.
This is a small and foolish example of what we do not know. So, climate change will have feedback effects but we do not know which way they will go - the weather is a bit more complex than a single room a/c.
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Definitions of Terror
It is never more clear than now how the dominant culture of the US gets to tell everyone how they are doing.
India, we are told, is the country most affected by terrorism after Iraq, and its judicial systems get in the way of an effective response.
The first conclusion is drawn from the number of deaths which are a result of 'terrorist' action. The latter - I suppose they would like us to use waterboarding?
Redefine terror to include, as suicide attacks, all the school shootings that take place in the US, not to mention workplace shootings and other gun related crimes and I would be willing to bet that the US is number 2; I do not follow Iraq but it could even be number 1.
Total terrorist deaths in India last year were around 3,000; the US had around 30,000 gun deaths.
I submit that it is not the US judiciary that is broken, but the US polity, given that they are about to allow general carrying of concealed weapons all over the US. For sure they would not like that to be the case in Iraq or Pakistan, but then there is the old saw about he US - to emulate us, do not as we say but as we do.
Come to think of it, I would prefer India to do as they say; I do not really want our politics captured by a bunch of plutocrats (viva Mayawati) or a gunmongers.
On another note, were Al Qaeda really media savvy they would find a way to take credit for gun deaths in the US (Al Gore and the internet anyone?).
India, we are told, is the country most affected by terrorism after Iraq, and its judicial systems get in the way of an effective response.
The first conclusion is drawn from the number of deaths which are a result of 'terrorist' action. The latter - I suppose they would like us to use waterboarding?
Redefine terror to include, as suicide attacks, all the school shootings that take place in the US, not to mention workplace shootings and other gun related crimes and I would be willing to bet that the US is number 2; I do not follow Iraq but it could even be number 1.
Total terrorist deaths in India last year were around 3,000; the US had around 30,000 gun deaths.
I submit that it is not the US judiciary that is broken, but the US polity, given that they are about to allow general carrying of concealed weapons all over the US. For sure they would not like that to be the case in Iraq or Pakistan, but then there is the old saw about he US - to emulate us, do not as we say but as we do.
Come to think of it, I would prefer India to do as they say; I do not really want our politics captured by a bunch of plutocrats (viva Mayawati) or a gunmongers.
On another note, were Al Qaeda really media savvy they would find a way to take credit for gun deaths in the US (Al Gore and the internet anyone?).
Friday, May 8, 2009
Democracy and the mall
Mumbai may be the financial capital of India but, because it does not have too many top pols hanging around it is usually the first city to give a preview of what a real, middle class, democratic India is all about.
First Mumbai airport banned private planes from taking off or landing during peak traffic hours so that commercial flights could try and remain on time. This forced the plane owning classes to take off before dawn and return late at night, both of which timings are a real drag on ones social life. But having bought a plane one could hardly turn it in, could one - especially now when the mildest late payment, let alone the 'repo' of a plane, gives rise to rumours of bankruptcy.
Now, Mumbai airport has gone one better - it is booting the planes out as their hangar leases expire and replacing them with hotels, shops, malls and whatever else will drag a coin from the travelling classes.
Mr. Reddy will have a few tough cocktail parties in the near future but this is a clear pointer to the rich and powerful; you may have the dough and the power but we want our share.
I would watch this space carefully were I a politician.
First Mumbai airport banned private planes from taking off or landing during peak traffic hours so that commercial flights could try and remain on time. This forced the plane owning classes to take off before dawn and return late at night, both of which timings are a real drag on ones social life. But having bought a plane one could hardly turn it in, could one - especially now when the mildest late payment, let alone the 'repo' of a plane, gives rise to rumours of bankruptcy.
Now, Mumbai airport has gone one better - it is booting the planes out as their hangar leases expire and replacing them with hotels, shops, malls and whatever else will drag a coin from the travelling classes.
Mr. Reddy will have a few tough cocktail parties in the near future but this is a clear pointer to the rich and powerful; you may have the dough and the power but we want our share.
I would watch this space carefully were I a politician.
Friday, May 1, 2009
The Worth of an Indian or the PPP of Life
I have for years said that life in India was valued cheaply. Now we have a way to put a number on how cheap.
The UK has a population of 60MM and keeps 30MM doses of Tamiflu on hand for a flu outbreak where they expect a max 2.5% fatality rate. India has a population of 1,100MM and 2.0MM doses of Tamiflu on hand; max fatality expected is 5.0%.
Step 1:
60UKR = 30Tami
1UKC = .5Tami
1,100IR = 2.0Tami
1R = 2/1,100Tami or .0018
By substitition:
.5 = .0018
Or every UK citizen (or more properly resident) = 277.8 Indian residents
If one corrects for expected mortality then every UK resident is equal to 555.6 Indian residents.
If one corrects for venality, (while the State has arrogated all supplies of Tamiflu to itself you can bet they will not not dole out prophylactic doses on a first come first served basis - our jailbird politicians will be first in line) the worth of a poor person will be sub 2,000.
Perhaps this exercise will take some of the India shining shit off our politician's and businessmen's faces. A life that is valued at 600x+ the one that one leaves behind is reason enough to emigrate and explains why boat people exist.
Postscript - even if the government increases the doses at hand to 10MM as announced this still leaves the numbers at over 100x.
The calculation of similar ratios for other countries is left as an exercise for the reader. In general socialist Europe puts a higher value on its residents' lives than the uber capitalist US; HK is the outlier with 3.0x coverage for each citizen, making each HK resident and visitor 6.0x as valuable as a resident Briton. Could have have to do with the preponderance of money merchants in the city?
The UK has a population of 60MM and keeps 30MM doses of Tamiflu on hand for a flu outbreak where they expect a max 2.5% fatality rate. India has a population of 1,100MM and 2.0MM doses of Tamiflu on hand; max fatality expected is 5.0%.
Step 1:
60UKR = 30Tami
1UKC = .5Tami
1,100IR = 2.0Tami
1R = 2/1,100Tami or .0018
By substitition:
.5 = .0018
Or every UK citizen (or more properly resident) = 277.8 Indian residents
If one corrects for expected mortality then every UK resident is equal to 555.6 Indian residents.
If one corrects for venality, (while the State has arrogated all supplies of Tamiflu to itself you can bet they will not not dole out prophylactic doses on a first come first served basis - our jailbird politicians will be first in line) the worth of a poor person will be sub 2,000.
Perhaps this exercise will take some of the India shining shit off our politician's and businessmen's faces. A life that is valued at 600x+ the one that one leaves behind is reason enough to emigrate and explains why boat people exist.
Postscript - even if the government increases the doses at hand to 10MM as announced this still leaves the numbers at over 100x.
The calculation of similar ratios for other countries is left as an exercise for the reader. In general socialist Europe puts a higher value on its residents' lives than the uber capitalist US; HK is the outlier with 3.0x coverage for each citizen, making each HK resident and visitor 6.0x as valuable as a resident Briton. Could have have to do with the preponderance of money merchants in the city?
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