Look for the small things. I have a slightly overdue bill of USD 14.00 (that is correct, fourteen) on a card that I have had for 15 or 20 years (can't remember). Paying the amount requires that I enter all sorts of forms that one cannot do online (foreign address - something they have known for at least 14 years). It is interesting that the form asks how long I expect to be in the financial straits I am (presumably) in.
More interesting - the phone numbers to call (or even for normal assistance) are outside the normal working hours of Europe, and certainly of India. So is the message to not look to buy or travel overseas? Or is their card base too broke to do so? Is the cutback of service wise? Or do they have no choice as they charge to preserve earnings.
Bad signs. While I do not believe the rumours that they are going down perhaps a put option may be a wise call - while at the same time buying crosstown rival JP Morgan.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Sunday, March 23, 2008
Ciao to the Rupee - buying opportunity coming
I have been one of the earliest rupee bulls - called the turn about 5 years ago.
Now, all and sundry are carrying on about how the rupee will keep rising. It won't for one simple reason:
The price of oil will continue to be high and our pusillanimous politician's will not raise the price to the people. One has to assume that foolish foreigners will continue to indefinitely buy expensive Bombay real estate on a nutty promote to boot (see Unitech et al vs. Goldman and Lehman) so we can import oil. Nuttiness is not forever.
Look for a reversal with the rupee cratering sometime around this time in 2009 when the penny will drop on a lot of silly investments and new managers will sweep out the good with the bad.
Want a precedent? It took till the late 90's for the first lot of private equity investment to reveal its returns and till the mid 2000's for the second lot. There was a lot of turmoil within the PE and investing community and new managers did not at all like what their predecessors had done. This lead to a lot of stock being tossed, the good, the bad and the ugly alike. This was more so when the sponsoring institution had also changed hands back in NY, London, Zurich or wherever. Back then, the industry was playing for tiddly winks. Not any more, and this time, when 'discovery' of the real return is made the parent may be going through some hard times as well.
Now, all and sundry are carrying on about how the rupee will keep rising. It won't for one simple reason:
The price of oil will continue to be high and our pusillanimous politician's will not raise the price to the people. One has to assume that foolish foreigners will continue to indefinitely buy expensive Bombay real estate on a nutty promote to boot (see Unitech et al vs. Goldman and Lehman) so we can import oil. Nuttiness is not forever.
Look for a reversal with the rupee cratering sometime around this time in 2009 when the penny will drop on a lot of silly investments and new managers will sweep out the good with the bad.
Want a precedent? It took till the late 90's for the first lot of private equity investment to reveal its returns and till the mid 2000's for the second lot. There was a lot of turmoil within the PE and investing community and new managers did not at all like what their predecessors had done. This lead to a lot of stock being tossed, the good, the bad and the ugly alike. This was more so when the sponsoring institution had also changed hands back in NY, London, Zurich or wherever. Back then, the industry was playing for tiddly winks. Not any more, and this time, when 'discovery' of the real return is made the parent may be going through some hard times as well.
Dolly the Sheep
Now that the IPL is well and truly launched we need to educate our sportsmen on what is expected of them. I see a sad want of ability in our boys to waste money on the accoutrements of successful sportsmanship and ask the bat and ball wallahs to look to the UK for inspiration.
True, some of the victors did announce that they will buy the odd Porsche or Hummer, but not much beyond that. One, at least, is dating Bollywood starlets - but they are of no use to spectators or the media for no matter how free and easy their lives, they are not allowed to be seen to be free and/or easy or their audiences will vanish. The rest of the squad are married to delightful stay at home women, are waiting to marry their high school sweethearts or, better, like those other successful Indian men, our computer engineers in the US, are waiting for Mummy to find them a nice, homely, girl with whom to settle down.
No, what we need are imports. We have imported players galore. Now we need to imports wives and girlfriends in the football league mould for they will provide much more sport to the punters. Consider:
1) They will launch a much needed paparazzi industry as they are seen shopping at boutiques (for sex toys even), throwing up in gutters after a girls night out and doing other wives and girfriends things.
2) By posing in their knickers they will give some anchor of Indian-ness to the page three shots that plaster the front page of even our leading financial daily. If we cannot do without blondes with big boobs then at least let us contract them to be our blondes with big boobs.
3) They will help our fashion industry by forcing the lazy fellows to cut for women with figures as opposed to making their dough stitching tents for the seriously obese attending the big fat Indian wedding.
4) As the cult of celebrity widens they will exchange partners with other celebrities, as they are wont to do. In time we may even see Big Indian Industrialists dispense with the mistresses hidden in London and move on to the second, Trophy Wife.
In short we must import WAG's because, like much else that we bring in, from bags to best practices, this too will put us at the cutting edge.
True, some of the victors did announce that they will buy the odd Porsche or Hummer, but not much beyond that. One, at least, is dating Bollywood starlets - but they are of no use to spectators or the media for no matter how free and easy their lives, they are not allowed to be seen to be free and/or easy or their audiences will vanish. The rest of the squad are married to delightful stay at home women, are waiting to marry their high school sweethearts or, better, like those other successful Indian men, our computer engineers in the US, are waiting for Mummy to find them a nice, homely, girl with whom to settle down.
No, what we need are imports. We have imported players galore. Now we need to imports wives and girlfriends in the football league mould for they will provide much more sport to the punters. Consider:
1) They will launch a much needed paparazzi industry as they are seen shopping at boutiques (for sex toys even), throwing up in gutters after a girls night out and doing other wives and girfriends things.
2) By posing in their knickers they will give some anchor of Indian-ness to the page three shots that plaster the front page of even our leading financial daily. If we cannot do without blondes with big boobs then at least let us contract them to be our blondes with big boobs.
3) They will help our fashion industry by forcing the lazy fellows to cut for women with figures as opposed to making their dough stitching tents for the seriously obese attending the big fat Indian wedding.
4) As the cult of celebrity widens they will exchange partners with other celebrities, as they are wont to do. In time we may even see Big Indian Industrialists dispense with the mistresses hidden in London and move on to the second, Trophy Wife.
In short we must import WAG's because, like much else that we bring in, from bags to best practices, this too will put us at the cutting edge.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
