The Punditocracy has now determined that there is no such thing as decoupling and we are all doomed along with the US.
We absolutely, absolutely need for the US to return to its old ways so that they can start buying from us with our own money.
Unfortunately India lost its chance to do the labour thing when it actually led somewhere. That is what Korea did and I would exchange Korea's per capita earnings for those of India any day.
Those days are past. Now labour means being a wage slave forever, and even having to lend your wages for your masters to buy the shirts you make.
India did not do that which is why we have fewer empty T shirt factories than economies that were more coupled to the west.
Where we see that spectre is with our IT outsourcing firms; it has not happened yet because it is a little harder to switch off that project than it is to not buy a T shirt. But it may happen.
If it does - Good. Then perhaps we can unlock some smart people who have been trained to do smart things. They can stop being Cybercoolies and become Engineers. Just like Dilbert;).
An example. An engineering cybercoolie earns his company about 12 USD an hour and makes around 4 to 6 of that himself. His worth to the Indian economy is 23K USD, period, paragraph, end. His worth to himself is about half that.
Compare this to the same engineer who may make a machine for my company. He makes the same money; maybe he makes more or a little less. His worth to the economy is hugely different. A machine that may have cost me 500K to buy can be had for 200K. The worth to the Indian economy = 300K plus whatever the machine guy makes - say 100K. And an ongoing competitive advantage for companies based here using his machines.
Decoupling may be hard but sometimes, as in a divorce, it may lead to something better.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
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