A Foretelling

A glance at the IPL scores will tell you a lot about the India to come. The teams of two of the richest owners, Bombay and Bangalore, are in the cellar and it look likes they have no chance of making it out of there.

Does this mean anything for the scores of businesses that at least one of them is trying to dominate? Will Reliance Retail be in the cellar of the retail business? The entertainment business?

Frankly, I have not been amused by the land grab mentality that is driving our largest groups, driven entirely by their unequal access to capital. The reason that the government and the RBI ought to free up banking is to allow the best retailer to triumph - not just fat cats. But that would dent the contribution train, as we as the job patronage train.

The great thing about the IPL is that everything is played out in double time with the result known in 45 days. Business failures will take much longer to figure out but the result will be the same. The Ambani machines cannot triumph in every sphere and some of the biggest and best PE opportunities of the future will the divestment of these businesses. Let us hope that the founders make their initial attempt truly gold plated so the secondary buyer has lots to play with. And let us see if taking the cap off players salaries will allow the Indians to recover next year. Or will the IPL, like business, have just too many good players for one man to own and will the format itself be too unstable to allow a star team to win. I bet on the latter.